England vs Croatia Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips
By Vavada UK Tips Desk · Published 10 Nov 2026 · UEFA Nations League · odds are a snapshot and may change
England host Croatia in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, with kick-off at 19:45 UK time. England sit second in the table on nine points. Croatia are third on three points with a goal difference of -10. The sides met on 3 October, when England won 7-0, so Croatia arrive looking for a response. The bookmakers see this as one-sided. Below we look at form, the table and the odds, then give our picks.
Recent form
England have won four of their last five matches. Their results, oldest first:
- 18 July: beat France 6-4
- 26 September: lost 3-2 to Spain
- 29 September: beat Czechia 2-0
- 3 October: beat Croatia 7-0
- 6 October: beat Czechia 3-0
Their record in the Nations League table is three wins, no draws and one defeat from four games.
Croatia have won one of their last five and lost the other four:
- 2 July: lost 2-1 to Portugal
- 26 September: beat Czechia 2-1
- 29 September: lost 4-1 to Spain
- 3 October: lost 7-0 to England
- 6 October: lost 2-1 to Spain
Their league record is one win, no draws and three defeats.
League position and season so far
| Team | Pos | Pts | Played | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 2 | 9 | 4 | +11 |
| Croatia | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 |
England have taken six more points than Croatia from the same number of games. The goal-difference gap is 21, and the 7-0 result a few weeks ago is a large part of it. Croatia's only league win so far came against Czechia.
Head-to-head
The two sides have met five times since October 2018, with fixtures on 12 October 2018, 18 November 2018, 13 June 2021, 17 June 2026 and 3 October 2026. We have no scores for the earlier games, so we won't draw conclusions from them. The most recent meeting, on 3 October, finished 7-0 to England.
Odds analysis
The market feed gives the following decimal prices, which we have converted into implied probabilities:
| Outcome | Odds | Implied probability | Without bookmaker margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 1.24 | 80.6% | 74.6% |
| Draw | 5.75 | 17.4% | 16.1% |
| Croatia | 10.00 | 10.0% | 9.3% |
The three implied probabilities add up to about 108%, so the bookmaker margin is roughly 8%. Once that is removed, the market gives England about a 75% chance of winning.
At 1.24, England win is a short price that returns little. Croatia at 10.00 is the long shot, but their form (one win in five, with a 7-0 loss last time out) gives few reasons to back them. The goals line is set at 3.5, and we have not been given prices for it. Odds can change, so check the live market before you bet.
Our prediction
Main pick: England to win (1X2). They have won four of their last five, including a 7-0 victory over this opponent, and sit six points clear in the table. Croatia have lost four of their last five and have the worst goal difference of the two sides by a wide margin. The odds already reflect this, so England win suits cautious bettors, or those who want to include it in an accumulator.
Alternative bet: over 3.5 goals. We have no price for this market, so treat it as a lean rather than a recommendation. England's last five games produced 10, 5, 2, 7 and 3 goals, so three of five went over 3.5. Croatia's produced 3, 3, 5, 7 and 3, with two of five going over. Taking both sides together, five of ten went over the line. That is roughly an even split, so only back it if the price is attractive.
FAQ
Who will win England vs Croatia?
England are the clear favourites at 1.24, an implied chance of about 75% once the margin is removed. We pick England to win.
What time does England vs Croatia kick off?
The match kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Thursday 12 November 2026, in the UEFA Nations League.
What are the best odds for England vs Croatia?
The feed shows England at 1.24, the draw at 5.75 and Croatia at 10.00, with a goals line of 3.5. Prices vary between bookmakers and can move before kick-off, so compare them before placing a bet.
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