Albania vs Finland Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips
By Vavada UK Tips Desk · Published 10 Nov 2026 · UEFA Nations League · odds are a snapshot and may change
Albania host Finland in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, with kick-off at 19:45 UK time. The hosts lead the standings on 9 points from four games. Finland are third on 7 points, so a home win would stretch Albania's lead, while a Finland win would put the visitors level with them or ahead. The sides also met five weeks ago, and Finland won that one. This preview covers form, the table, the odds and our pick.
Recent form
Albania's last five matches, oldest first:
- Luxembourg (home): lost 1-0
- Belarus (home): won 2-0
- San Marino (away): won 3-0
- Finland (away): lost 2-1
- San Marino (home): won 2-1
That is three wins and two defeats. Albania scored in four of the five and kept two clean sheets. Their Nations League record is W3 D0 L1.
Finland's last five, oldest first:
- Hungary (away): lost 2-1
- San Marino (away): won 7-0
- Belarus (home): drew 0-0
- Albania (home): won 2-1
- Belarus (away): lost 1-0
Finland have won two, drawn one and lost two. They scored seven against San Marino but failed to score in two of the other four. Their Nations League record is W2 D1 L1.
League position and season so far
| Team | Pos | Pts | GP | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 1st | 9 | 4 | +5 |
| Finland | 3rd | 7 | 4 | +7 |
Albania have the points, with three wins from four. Finland have the better goal difference, helped by the 7-0 win in San Marino. The two points between them mean this match could decide who finishes ahead.
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting was on 3 October 2026, when Finland beat Albania 2-1 at home. That is the only head-to-head result we have. Albania will want revenge, but a single game is a thin basis for a bet.
Odds analysis
The market feed shows these decimal odds:
| Outcome | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Albania win | 1.87 | 53.5% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 30.3% |
| Finland win | 4.10 | 24.4% |
The implied probabilities add up to about 108%, so the bookmaker's margin is roughly 8%. Once that is removed, the fair chances are about 49% for Albania, 28% for the draw and 22–23% for Finland. The market rates Albania as favourites but not by a huge margin. It is respecting Finland's win in the reverse fixture.
The goals line is 2.5. Albania's last five games went over 2.5 goals three times, and so did Finland's. That makes the line look about right, with no obvious lean either way.
Odds can change before kick-off, so check the price you are offered.
Our prediction
Main pick: Albania to win (1.87).
Albania top the group with three wins from four, and they are at home. They have won three of their last five and scored in four of them. Their only defeat in the group came against Finland, away from home. Finland's away form in the list we have is mixed, with a 2-1 loss in Hungary, a 7-0 win in San Marino and a 1-0 loss in Belarus. At about 49% fair probability against a 53.5% implied price, this is not a big value play. It is the most likely single outcome, though. The 3 October result is the main reason to be cautious, so keep the stake modest.
Alternative bet: over 2.5 goals. Three of Albania's last five games and three of Finland's last five went over this line. We have no price for this market in the feed, so check the odds before you bet.
FAQ
Who will win Albania vs Finland?
We think Albania, who lead the group and play at home. Finland won the reverse fixture 2-1, so a Finland win is far from out of the question.
What time does Albania vs Finland kick off?
Kick-off is at 19:45 UK time on Thursday 12 November 2026.
What are the best odds for Albania vs Finland?
The feed shows Albania at 1.87, the draw at 3.30 and Finland at 4.10. Prices change, so compare bookmakers before placing a bet.
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